815
ACUS11 KWNS 091649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091649
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS
AND SOUTHWEST AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091649Z - 091845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A TORNADO MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A STORM CLUSTER WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
IS ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN MS/AL BORDER. THIS CLUSTER
IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE MLCAPE GRADIENT, ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE BUOYANCY PLUME GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD, THIS
CLUSTER MAY PERSIST THOUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME RECENT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE KHDC AND KMOB VWPS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT, AND SOME THREAT
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE FOR AS
LONG AS THIS CLUSTER PERSISTS.
FARTHER WEST, SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA, WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBTLE IN THE SHORT
TERM, MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MATURATION IN THIS AREA, AND ALSO POTENTIALLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MS, NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING AND
VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME IN THIS AREA, STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND, AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE
BROADER WARM SECTOR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHORT-TERM COVERAGE
IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 01/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 32579028 32828951 32868861 32728798 32578751 32378736
31488772 31188790 30648839 30459057 30289109 30099157
30119216 30459226 30989184 32579028
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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