060
ACUS11 KWNS 092146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092146
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092146Z - 092315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON APPEARS
UNLIKELY, BUT A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
LA INTO SOUTHERN MS, WITHIN A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG REGION-WIDE, BUT
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY REMAINED DISORGANIZED THUS FAR, LIKELY DUE TO
GENERALLY WEAK ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE AROUND 700 MB
NOTED IN 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIX AND LCH.
WITH TIME, ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR (WHICH HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED
THIS AFTERNOON) WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, THOUGH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, AND
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED HAIL. WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING, DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 01/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31799353 32079086 32208966 32248896 32208842 31938785
31768778 30788879 29608986 29789201 29789252 29959338
31219355 31799353
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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