475
ACUS11 KWNS 100040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100040
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 100040Z - 100245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS. A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. ONE OR MORE
WATCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0130 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND BROAD WARM
SECTOR FROM EAST TX INTO LA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS, CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGION HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED AS A
POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS MOVED
EASTWARD. CONTINUED ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR APPEARS LIKELY THIS EVENING GIVEN ROBUST MOISTURE AND
BUOYANCY (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG LIX/LCH RAOBS) WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION REMAINING.
OVERALL FORCING IS STILL SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AND DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS STORM EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. INITIAL STORM EVOLUTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE STRUCTURES AND THE COLD FRONT
OVER EASTERN TX. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (50-60 KT) ORIENTED LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THESE FEATURES IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT
WITH A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS. THIS
WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN STRONG MID AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
WHILE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT WEAKER, LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFY ACROSS LA AND MS.
PEAK SRH (0-500M) OF 100-150 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL. THIS APPEARS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHERE WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS ARE OCCURRING AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. AS STORMS MATURE A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AND
TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES, ONE OR MORE WATCHES IS LIKELY NEEDED
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 01/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018
32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125
30369211 30369339 30409384
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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