417
ACUS01 KWNS 100045
SWODY1
SPC AC 100043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
..01Z UPDATE
NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS WITH
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR DDC. 500MB SPEED MAX AFFILIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH TX-SOUTHERN
MO-CENTRAL IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT
IN NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS FEATURE ADVANCES EAST, LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS LA
LATER THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING INTO NORTHERN AL BY 10/12Z.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS EAST TX AS THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF
THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE GLANCES THIS REGION. EARLIER THOUGHTS
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LCH EXHIBITS
STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST THINKING IS
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
..DARROW.. 01/10/2026
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