615
ACUS11 KWNS 100508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100507
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...
VALID 100507Z - 100730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST LA,
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN LA AND INTO CENTRAL MS, WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHEAST TX, AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH.
CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ALONG OR EVEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN TX, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CELLS ALSO EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE SABINE VALLEY MAY BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COOLING ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. IN
ADDITION, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND SECONDARY
PRESSURE FALL TIME AFTER 09Z MAY YIELD A INCREASED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS LA/MS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY
ISOLATED CELLS WILL HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS 0-1 SRH REMAINS IN
EXCESS OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2.
..JEWELL.. 01/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30958882 30419160 29909522 30069531 30409512 31869384
32249357 32719062 32598932 32088841 31238843 30958882
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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