859
ACUS11 KWNS 101305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101304
ALZ000-101500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MS AND SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...
VALID 101304Z - 101500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES, PERHAPS INCLUDING A
STRONG TORNADO, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPROACHING MONTGOMERY AL AND AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
8-10 AM CST.
DISCUSSION...STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
ZONE, GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A DEVELOPING 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850
MB JET AXIS, HAS EVOLVED INTO AN ORGANIZING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS AIR MASS, INCLUDING
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F, EXTENDS IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COASTS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA, BETWEEN
MONTGOMERY AND BIRMINGHAM, AND APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN STRONG
STORMS AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN
FURTHER WHILE NOSING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
14-16Z, PERHAPS INCLUDING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW UP TO 50 KTS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MONTGOMERY AL VICINITY. THE MOST NOTABLE CONVECTION,
INCLUDING A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL WHICH EARLIER MAY HAVE PRODUCED A
TORNADO, AND HAS NOW EVOLVED INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES WITH A BROADENING CIRCULATION ON ITS NORTHERN END,
APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH ONE LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM. THIS HAS
CROSSED INTO ALABAMA AND MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THE MOST PROMINENT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT
APPROACHES AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL THROUGH MID
MORNING.
..KERR.. 01/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32398783 32998676 32828630 32348649 31928741 31728814
31888812 32398783
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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