332
ACUS11 KWNS 101521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101521
GAZ000-ALZ000-101645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL INTO FAR WESTERN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...
VALID 101521Z - 101645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CONTINUES
ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 03 THIS MORNING. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KBMX/KMXX DEPICTS A
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED QLCS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED PARTS OF
THE LINE (I.E., JUST WEST OF THE KMXX RADAR) -- WHERE AROUND 50 KT
OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR (PER KMXX VWP) IS FAVORING MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS KEEPING PACE WITH THE LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL. HERE,
MOIST INFLOW (UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
SIZE/CURVATURE (AROUND 270 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER KMXX VWP) WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE QLCS MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL GA IS ALSO
TAKING ON A MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION, AND THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE
LOCALLY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IN
THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER, AS THE QLCS APPROACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH
03, BUOYANCY BECOMES QUITE LIMITED, AND CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD EXTENT.
THEREFORE, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 01/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32068715 32628648 33458558 33828509 33858478 33688457
33278464 32918495 32568515 32158561 32018590 31828639
31738690 31808710 32068715
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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