559
FNUS22 KWNS 141839
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND FUEL INFORMATION. THE FORECAST REASONING
OTHERWISE REMAINS VALID. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
..WENDT.. 01/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0210 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MOVES OFFSHORE, FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A SECOND POTENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A STRONG JET STREAK AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BOLSTERING STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE, THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT INCREASING FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE STRONGER
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PRIOR COLD
FRONT, BOLSTERED BY DOWNSLOPING, AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15-20% ARE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH OVERLAPPED WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR SUSTAINED ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN VERY DRY FINE FUELS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CO, WESTERN NE AND NORTHWESTERN KS.
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS (30-40 MPH) WILL LIKELY NOT OVERLAP WITH THE LOWEST HUMIDITY,
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED D1/WEDNESDAY
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY LIMITING THE DRIEST FUELS. STILL WITH STRONG
GUSTS IN PROXIMITY TO RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE AND FUELS ABNORMALLY
DRY, BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FARTHER SOUTH, A SIMILAR, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM.
LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AMID RH
BELOW 20%. WITH DRY FUELS IN PLACE, SEVERAL HOURS OF ENHANCED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHEAST
VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW 25%, MUCH COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS TO SOME DEGREE, THOUGH LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY STATE OF AREAS FUELS AND THE OVERLAP WITH
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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