936
FNUS21 KWNS 160743
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
ROCKIES/WESTERN EDGE OF BROAD-SCALE EASTERN-CONUS TROUGHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COLOCATED WITH
THE TROUGH CENTER MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF WISCONSIN, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
RECEPTIVE FUELS, AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
..TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-25 MPH, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BROADLY RANGE FROM 15-30%, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES CORRESPONDING WITH
COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE BORDER WITH KANSAS. WITH
SEASONAL ERCS LARGELY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
AND A SMALLER AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS IS INTRODUCED IN THIS FORECAST TO REFLECT GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS PER RECENT
HREF GUIDANCE. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL BE COOLER (NEAR 40F), SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER, WARRANTING AT LEAST ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS.
..NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
SEASONAL ERCS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 40+ MPH (GUSTING 50-60 MPH)
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
COOLER (MID 30S F) GIVEN A LACK OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
FORECAST MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS
SURFACE WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY DEVELOP, SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY POTENTIAL ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
..HALBERT.. 01/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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