172
FNUS21 KWNS 171650
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
VERY DRY, POST-FRONTAL FLOW FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH
(LOCALLY 20 MPH) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 0-10F RANGE
SHOULD YIELD VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 10% ACROSS SOUTHERN TX
BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
ALIGNED WITH RECEPTIVE AND DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS WILL PROMOTE AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX THROUGH TODAY. A LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
STILL EXISTS WHERE WINDS OF 20 MPH MATERIALIZE. A SLIGHT EXPANSION
OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS NECESSARY OWING TO CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.
..WEST-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
50-55 MPH THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WY, EASTERN CO, THE NE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON, COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S SHOULD INHIBIT IGNITIONS ACROSS AN OTHERWISE RECEPTIVE
FUELSCAPE.
..WILLIAMS.. 01/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0100 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED
BY MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, WITH THE SURFACE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
CHARACTERIZED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. WHILE MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
SOME ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE DRY AND BREEZY
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS OVERLAP WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE GULF BY
EARLY MORNING, DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL
TX TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN TX. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15%
WILL OVERLAP WITH FUELS THAT EXCEED THE 99TH SEASONAL PERCENTILE FOR
ERCS, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE (GUSTING
TO 25 MPH). GIVEN THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE CONDITIONS,
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SURFACE WINDS.
..WEST-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 10-20%, COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 25-30 MPH (GUSTING TO 40 MPH) MAY
POSE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. THOUGH FUELS DO APPEAR TO
BE RECEPTIVE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S TO LOW
30S F SHOULD LIMIT IGNITION POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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