107
ACUS11 KWNS 172039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172038
NYZ000-PAZ000-172345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA
CONCERNING...SNOW SQUALL
VALID 172038Z - 172345Z
SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED SNOW SQUALL MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING,
WHILE LIKELY DIMINISHING IN AREAL EXTENT/INTENSITY.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SNOW SQUALL WHICH BEGAN WEST OF CLEVELAND,
HAS RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE BUFFALO METRO AREA, WITH NUMEROUS
FIRST-ORDER OBSERVING SITES ALONG LAKE ERIE HAVING RECORDED
HALF-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES AND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. MORE SPORADIC
SNOW SQUALL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE BAND THAT IS NOW IN WESTERN PA. A POCKET OF WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NY MAY HELP SUSTAIN THE SQUALL NEAR THE LAKE
ONTARIO VICINITY INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE MORE PROMINENT WEAKENING
OF LAPSE RATES. LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND COMBINED WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING,
THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN THE SQUALL DIMINISHING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP/EARLY-AFTERNOON CAM GUIDANCE WITH A
REDUCTION IN THE SNOW-SQUALL PARAMETER AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS TOWARDS 00Z.
..GRAMS.. 01/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 42967861 43257840 43437779 43397683 43607640 44027616
44107553 43437542 42617619 41987692 41617771 41317823
41227858 41217921 41387937 41677928 42487874 42967861
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page