083
ACUS11 KWNS 200225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200224
NYZ000-200830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 200224Z - 200830Z
SUMMARY...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT,
WITH RATES EVENTUALLY APPROACHING 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX SHOWS GRADUALLY
ORGANIZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE VEERING OF UNI-DIRECTIONAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW (SAMPLED BY KTYX VWP) AND A FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE AND
SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE ADVANCING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. ADDITIONALLY, COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (AROUND -31C AT 700 MB) WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER -- FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
VICINITY. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
..WEINMAN.. 01/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618
43467640 43667642 43947626
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