483
ACUS11 KWNS 221353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221352
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-221745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN PA INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN VT
CONCERNING...SNOW SQUALL
VALID 221352Z - 221745Z
SUMMARY...SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING
FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN PA, WITHIN A BROADER REGION OF DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEST DIURNAL
WARMING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (NEAR/BELOW -20C AT 700 MB)
WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TIME THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBTLE, MULTIPLE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO. ANY STRONGER BANDS MAY PERSIST AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD, WITH RECENT HRRR/RRFS RUNS BOTH DEPICTING MULTIPLE BANDS
MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
ANY STRONGER BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW
RATES. STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL
ALSO SUPPORT STRONG GUST POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE PRONOUNCED
STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURS. THIS COMBINATION OF WIND
AND BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR ABRUPT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 01/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
LAT...LON 41447842 41867961 42347973 43317914 43427777 43337651
43617608 44137621 45027504 45037361 44987307 44587295
44277304 43177346 42377396 41727581 41617680 41447842
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