960
ACUS01 KWNS 240524
SWODY1
SPC AC 240522
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TODAY.
..NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
LATE-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW
OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAJA AROUND MID DAY AS A 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH, THEN EJECTS INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO BY 25/06Z. IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SPEED MAX, A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE POLAR
FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BASIN, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHERN MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT RECOVER ADEQUATELY
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. WHILE MUCAPE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TX GULF COAST. HOWEVER, POLAR FRONT WILL
SURGE OFFSHORE NEAR THE START OF THE DAY1 AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE QUICKLY SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MRGL RISK.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 01/24/2026
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