286
ACUS01 KWNS 241245
SWODY1
SPC AC 241243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TODAY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
EARLY-MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE JOINING THE MORE CONFLUENT, SINGLE-STREAM
SOUTHWESTERLIES IN PLACE FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONGER FLOW PRECEDING THE
UPPER LOW, CONTRIBUTING TO SOME DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD,
RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL BUOYANCY, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING. HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LA, BUT
LOW PROBABILITIES ALSO EXIST FARTHER NORTH WHERE LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET.
THE BAJA UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND REACHING CENTRAL TX BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW WILL ENCOURAGE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SURGING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL TAKE THE LOW FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BASIN, ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA AND TO THE CENTRAL AL/MS BORDER VICINITY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AS WELL, WITH THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION CONTRIBUTING TO
RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL
AL AND MS. EVEN WITH THIS MODIFICATION, MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT DOES NOT RECOVER ADEQUATELY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER EAST TX AFTER
06Z BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. SOME VERY MODEST
BUOYANCY IS POSSIBLE ATOP A STRONG WARM NOISE, WITH ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL INCLUDES
AREAS FROM EAST TX ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO NORTHERN MS WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION.
..SOUTHWEST
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS CYCLONICALLY FROM CENTRAL
CA INTO AZ DURING THE PERIOD. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST
NM FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 01/24/2026
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