153
ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
..SYNOPSIS
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS AN EXPANSIVE 1040 MB HIGH OVER OK.
COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS AND OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A DECAYING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION JUST
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL, WHERE THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
70S. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MORE THAN
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED POOR LAPSE RATES. A FEW DEEPER UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING COULD STILL OCCUR BRIEFLY, PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTHEAST FL COAST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 80S,
BUT OVERALL LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 01/26/2026
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