196
FNUS21 KWNS 090715
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CST MON FEB 09 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TODAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE POISED TO CREST THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN A POST-COLD FRONTAL REGIME, AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. OVER BOTH AREAS, THE DRY AND WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL FOSTER WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT REGARDING HOW DRY THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NONETHELESS, RH MAY DIP AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT
AMID 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, ATOP DRYING
FUELS. EVEN IF RH DOES NOT REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THE STRONGER
POST-COLD FRONTAL WINDS ATOP DRY FUELS SHOULD COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT
WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, IN COMBINATION WITH A
VERY DEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL SUPPORT RH DIPPING INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE AS SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXCEED 20 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
STILL DEPICTS THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. GIVEN GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY IN SUCH
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED DRYING FUELS, CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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