018
ACUS02 KWNS 091720
SWODY2
SPC AC 091718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST MON FEB 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BENEATH THIS RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY
WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY EVENING TO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AMID
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY CHARGE SEPARATION. EVEN IF LIGHTNING OCCURS, IT
SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED/SPARSE GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES.
..BENTLEY.. 02/09/2026
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