233
ACUS03 KWNS 110739
SWODY3
SPC AC 110738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS.
..WEST TX VICINITY
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO WEST TX WILL TRANSPORT MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN, AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
STEADILY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING/COOLING WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. FURTHERMORE, DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN TX.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND
COOLING ALOFT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN POST-SUNSET TIMING AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NEVERTHELESS, SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES, WITH ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ABOVE 3KM ARE PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL TO NEAR 1-INCH DIAMETER DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 02/11/2026
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