729
ACUS48 KWNS 110931
SWOD48
SPC AC 110929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4-5/SAT-SUN -- TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY
4/SATURDAY, EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
DAY 5/SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OK/TX RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL
DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TO THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE THE NC/MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT,
FIRST ACROSS EASTERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH AT LEAST SOME LOW-END
SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANY HIGHER-QUALITY GULF MOISTURE IS
UNCLEAR GIVEN LONGITUDINAL SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FURTHERMORE, GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE-TILT
TROUGH AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
TRAINING PRECIPITATION COULD FURTHER LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. THESE
UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE 15 PERCENT SEVERE DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
..DAYS 6-8/MON-WED
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
U.S. ON DAY 6/MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, THOUGH VARIOUS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW BEYOND
MONDAY.
..LEITMAN.. 02/11/2026
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