949
ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS.
..SYNOPSIS
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER TROUGHING. THE SOUTHERNMOST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGHING BEFORE THEN PIVOTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AT IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE NORTHERNMOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LESS PROGRESSIVE AT IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE LOWER CO VALLEY. EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RELATIVELY CONSOLIDATED
SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.
..WEST TX
DOWNSTREAM MASS RESPONSE WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING THROUGH MUCH OF WEST TX BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW
70S, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT MODEST BUOYANCY (I.E. 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE). THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL LIKELY LAG PEAK HEATING SLIGHTLY, BUT A FEW
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AMID WEAK CAPPING AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES, CHARACTERIZED BY
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT, SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD ORGANIZE AND
BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS STRONGER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN ANTICIPATED
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED, BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD STILL SUPPORT UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL.
..NORTHWEST TX INTO OK
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO MUCH OF OK FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK
BUOYANCY, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL. SEVERE COVERAGE IN THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 5%.
..MOSIER.. 02/11/2026
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