993
ACUS03 KWNS 120810
SWODY3
SPC AC 120809
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
..OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK WILL MODESTLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN MS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW,
CHARACTERIZED BY A 60-80 KT 500 MB JET, WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, A 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS OK/TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
INTENSIFY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AFTER 00Z. FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
40-50 KT 850MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER AR/LA/MS/AL AFTER DARK.
MOST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S F ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PERHAPS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS HUGGING
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. MIDLEVEL COOLING ATOP MOISTENING LOW TO
MIDLEVELS WILL SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE), ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO WESTERN LA/SOUTHWEST
AR. INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO WANE SOMEWHAT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES WEAKEN, NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION OCCURS, ALONG WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY OUTPACING
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN.
OVERALL, AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX, EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE CELLS/CLUSTERS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER OK/TX. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
AND FRONT SHIFTS EAST, INCREASING ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR/QLCS MODE. STRONG GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2026
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