428
ACUS48 KWNS 120908
SWOD48
SPC AC 120906
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/SUN -- DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON DAY
4/SUN. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP A MODESTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION, THOUGH HOW MUCH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ONGOING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SEEMS
MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN AL/GA INTO PARTS OF FL AS SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, OVERALL RISK
APPEARS LIMITED BY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN.
..DAYS 5-8
ON DAYS 5-6/MON-TUE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SPREADING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTION INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SPREAD IS LARGE BEYOND DAY 6/TUE. TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL U.S./MIDWEST VICINITY,
BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2026
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