242
ACUS03 KWNS 121933
SWODY3
SPC AC 121933
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED, SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY. A PAIR OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SHORTWAVE: THE LEAD VORTICITY MAX MOVING
THROUGH OK INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS WITH THE OTHER FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE VORTICITY MAX (AND
ASSOCIATED JETLET) REMAINING WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD.
MASS RESPONSE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH
60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST TX AND ADJACENT FAR WEST LA. MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE STORMS, ARE EXPECTED AS THE PROGRESSING
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THIS MOIST AND MODESTLY BUOYANT AIRMASS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX AND WESTERN OK, SUPPORTED BY STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF A SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE. BUOYANCY WILL BE
MODEST, BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED, BUT LOCALIZED ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS (AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE) COULD STILL RESULT IN A GUST
OR TWO REACHING THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN INCREASED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS WELL
AS SUPPORTING AN EASTWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SURGES EASTWARD, WITH STORMS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH, A STRONG
CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS PROBABLE. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION MENTIONED IN SYNOPSIS, MODEST HEATING AND POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS SHOULD TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL. DAMAGING GUSTS WITHIN THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY RISK, WHICH COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHWESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST LA GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN IN THESE REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS A LOW-PROBABILITY
TORNADO RISK FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LA, BUT ONLY IF
UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY LOW GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
RESULTING MODEST BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
..MOSIER.. 02/12/2026
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