584
ACUS11 KWNS 140957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140957
TXZ000-141200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140957Z - 141200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 6 AM CST. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...INTENSIFICATION OF MATURING SUPERCELLS IS NOTED IN
RECENT MRMS AND GOES IMAGERY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SAN
ANGELO, TX AREA. THESE CELLS ARE BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITHIN A
SOMEWHAT NARROW MESOSCALE CORRIDOR WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION IS OVERRIDING COLD POOLS ESTABLISHED BY PRIOR
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION, WHICH IS MAINTAINING MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE,
COUPLED WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT (60-70 KNOTS BETWEEN 6-8 KM PER THE
KSJT VWP), SHOULD MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON RECENT MRMS ESTIMATES, THESE CELLS SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL (MOST LIKELY UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER) AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. UNDULATION IN THE
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ICE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CORES CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ONTO THE LONGEVITY OF ANY
INDIVIDUAL CELLS, BUT THIS FAVORABLE MESOSCALE CORRIDOR MAY PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ROUGHLY 6 AM CST.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 02/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31450194 31680194 31870173 32989934 33089896 33019864
32809846 32539833 32289828 32029825 31819829 31689839
31080102 31040146 31210179 31450194
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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