239
FNUS21 KWNS 141627
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
..SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY LIMITED
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE TX/MEXICO BORDER. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME
POCKETS OF RECEPTIVE FUELS TO PERSIST. DRIER, POST-FRONTAL FLOW IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. RH FALLING TO
AS LOW AS 20% WILL COINCIDE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH TO
PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
..WILLIAMS.. 02/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1208 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ADVANCING A DRYLINE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
WITH RAPIDLY FALLING RH. RH MAY DROP TO 20-25%, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW THE RH WILL BE, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DRY
FUELS WITH ANY WETTING RAINS STAYING LARGELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST,
ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS REGION.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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