242
ACUS11 KWNS 142006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142005
LAZ000-TXZ000-142230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142005Z - 142230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED,
THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. WEAK
BUOYANCY AND POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIKELY LIMITED THE
SEVERE THREAT THUS FAR ACROSS NORTH TX, WHILE A PERSISTENT CAPPING
INVERSION (NOTED ON THE 18Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL COLLEGE
STATION SOUNDING) HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FILTERED DIURNAL
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY WITH TIME. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION IS STILL EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT, AS CONVECTION APPROACHES EAST TX.
AREA VWPS GENERALLY DEPICT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE INCREASES AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE ARKLATEX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE SRH MAY RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED QLCS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE IMPACT OF
POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS NOTED ON THE 18Z SHV SOUNDING) ON THE
NORTH AND EAST EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT, GRADUALLY INCREASING
DAMAGING-WIND AND LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY NECESSITATE
WATCH ISSUANCE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 02/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 32619549 32629478 32619424 32539369 32249346 31309336
30599350 29189384 28949524 29339613 29719677 30359662
31229634 32619549
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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