399
ACUS11 KWNS 150444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150443
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...
VALID 150443Z - 150645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE NEAR TERM --
WITHIN TORNADO WATCH #6. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
WITHIN AN HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICIES AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MS TONIGHT. THE LINE IS IMPINGING ON A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS, WHICH IS YIELDING WEAKLY UNSTABLE INFLOW FOR THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING AN
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (AROUND 350-400 M2/S2
0-1 KM SRH PER REGIONAL VWP). GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED LINE OF
STORMS AND THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY, A CORRIDOR OF
HEIGHTENED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MS IN THE NEAR TERM, AND A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
THEREAFTER, THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG A
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA, SOUTHERN MS,
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN AL -- WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
AND STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR FOR THIS THREAT.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29919212 30759176 31609125 31909026 31918920 31678840
31288789 30708778 30158795 29168882 29008914 28888979
28959113 29419208 29919212
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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