214
ACUS11 KWNS 150716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150715
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...
VALID 150715Z - 150915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND BRIEF EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED QLCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS. KDGX
IMAGERY HAS SAMPLED AT LEAST TWO TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURES WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A BOWING SEGMENT OF THE LINE
WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS ON THE ORDER OF 400 M2/S2 PER KDGX VWP
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, THIS SECTION OF THE LINE IS MOVING INTO A
DRIER, LESS BUOYANT AIRMASS, AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING WITHIN THE PAST 20-30 MINUTES. WHILE BRIEF CIRCULATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR-TERM (NEXT HOUR OR SO), A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHWEST AL.
FURTHER SOUTH, MORE BACKED SOUTHERLY WINDS IMPLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, BUT A RECENT 06 UTC SOUNDING FROM LIX SAMPLED
AROUND 280 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH WITHIN A SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE LINE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES - ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE MERIDIONAL
SEGMENTS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE LINE. COASTAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID-60 DEWPOINTS SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE
MS/AL BORDER, SUGGESTING THAT THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING THE QLCS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE.
..MOORE.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29339104 29839059 30968982 31338968 31838979 32168995
32378989 32528970 32548925 32448876 32228846 31958832
31708825 31168816 30818815 30428824 30308846 30258872
30138887 29928912 29648940 29298980 29139007 29069045
29049069 29159104 29339104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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