929
ACUS11 KWNS 150904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150904
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...
VALID 150904Z - 151100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE QLCS EXITING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. WHILE A LULL
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COMING HOURS, THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL SUPPORT DAMAGING TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM.
DISCUSSION...DIMINISHING LIGHTNING COUNTS, WARMING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES, AND DECREASING VIL VALUES HAVE ALL BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST TWO HOURS WITH THE QLCS TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST LA AND
SOUTHERN MS. THE VIABLE WARM SECTOR CAPABLE OF SUPPORT INTENSE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME SPATIALLY CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW TO MID-60S DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN PLACE. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
DIMINISHING AND IS LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND
IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THE KMOB VWP
CONTINUES TO SAMPLE APPROXIMATELY 25 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM BWD AND AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BWD AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS, COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL BUOYANCY ALONG THE COAST, MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC
DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 7. RECENT HRRR
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND HINT AT MORE INTENSE CELLS
OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH AROUND 11 UTC THAT MAY
POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND RISK.
..MOORE.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30508904 30768880 31198875 31318862 31358665 31318640
31208626 30648626 30458636 30388674 30298718 30238782
30258828 30248884 30248904 30508904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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