453
ACUS48 KWNS 151002
SWOD48
SPC AC 151000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING, INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE OUTSET
OF THE PERIOD, WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD, ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR IN GENERALLY PIECEMEAL FASHION, AS A
SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE/LOWER AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN INITIALLY SEASONABLY WARM ENVIRONMENT TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERIODIC LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS, POSSIBLE STRONG.
TO THIS POINT, GUIDANCE HAS EXHIBITED RATHER POOR PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE FEATURES, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT GREATER
CERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY
THURSDAY, ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. EVEN SO, IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECEDING GULF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING AND INLAND RETURN FLOW WILL ONLY SUPPORT
LIMITED MOISTENING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MODEST LATE MOISTURE
SURGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY
COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CYCLONE, ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH ARK-LA-TEX AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE MORE SUBDUED, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW, WITH UNCERTAIN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 02/15/2026
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