300
ACUS11 KWNS 151246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151245
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151245Z - 151445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK QLCS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN UPTICK IN SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS OCCUR, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY WHEN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, AND WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING COUNTS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE PAST 30-45 MINUTES WITHIN A WEAK QLCS AS IT TRAVERSES
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL. VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY
NEAR THE COAST HAS MODULATED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY FOR MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE AT SOME POINT IN THE COMING HOURS.
THESE RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE EARLY STAGES OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE UNDERWAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
FL COAST SHOW DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID-60S, WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 750 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE LINE BASED ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS FURTHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE COMING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MODE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES ONCE CONVECTIVE MATURATION IS
ACHIEVED. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THE QLCS
WILL REACH SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO POSE A ROBUST SEVERE THREAT,
WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER THIS
MORNING.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30478668 30768645 31278609 31568592 31748369 31758334
31538318 31128318 30678336 30138379 29968397 29768437
29598482 29568506 29748538 29958551 30098566 30198586
30288613 30318636 30378660 30478668
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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