841
ACUS11 KWNS 151613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151612
GAZ000-FLZ000-151745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND INTO SOUTHWEST
GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...
VALID 151612Z - 151745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING-WIND AND LOCALIZED TORNADO
THREAT IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED QLCS HAS INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS, WITH DEEPER
UPDRAFTS AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE LAST
2-3 HOURS. THIS QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS/AL.
WHILE THE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY, LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND BUOYANCY
IS CURRENTLY WEAK (WITH MLCAPE OF NEAR/BELOW 500 J/KG), BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH TIME FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE/BIG BEND INTO SOUTHWEST GA, DUE TO FILTERED HEATING AND
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONG FLOW AND
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES, WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
..DEAN.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30158523 30888473 31388437 31758394 31688332 31448313
30768313 29718336 29688421 29378505 29578541 30158523
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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