243
ACUS11 KWNS 151710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151709
FLZ000-GAZ000-151845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151709Z - 151845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATE
THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE, WITH SOME
EARLIER REPORTED WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
NOTED ON RADAR. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER,
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S F, WHILE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 60S F. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE (LOCALLY GREATER WHERE
STRONGER HEATING OCCURS) AHEAD OF THE ONGOING QLCS, SUPPORTING
MAINTENANCE AND POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.
WHILE SOME VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH TIME, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES,
WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
QLCS. PERSIST BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES WILL POSE A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A COUPLE
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE QLCS, WHICH COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS (INCLUDING HAIL), THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
AS ONGOING CONVECTION BEGINS TO APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF WW
8, DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTH FL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 29208305 30898320 31918319 32238264 32128209 31918160
31288137 29948116 29828112 28938170 28738200 28598250
28718290 29208305
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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