506
ACUS11 KWNS 152112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152111
FLZ000-GAZ000-152245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA INTO NORTH FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...9...
VALID 152111Z - 152245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8, 9 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE QLCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTH FL HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY DUE TO OUTPACING THE MORE ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER, AREA VWPS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE, ANY UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
FARTHER SOUTH, RATHER STRONG HEATING/MIXING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL. WHILE SOME MOISTENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CONVECTION (AIDED BY PRECEDING STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION), STRONG FLOW AND SOMEWHAT STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD FAVOR SOME UPTICK IN DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
ALSO, GIVEN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EARLIER MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE, ONE
OR MORE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS (SUCH AS THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER
SUWANNEE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES) COULD PERSIST AND POSE SOME
DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE MAINTAINED.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, STRONG OFFSHORE STORMS
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FL GULF COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY, WHICH
MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE EXPANSION OF WW 9, DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE STORMS APPROACH.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 02/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29448352 30198293 31048206 31618160 31678117 30468129
29658141 28968156 28468219 28388268 28568346 29448352
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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