038
ACUS11 KWNS 160134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160134
FLZ000-160400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 160134Z - 160400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED RISK OF STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WEAK POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION. WEAK PRE-CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY MAY CONTINUE TO LIMIT
UPDRAFT INTENSITY, THOUGH A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DESPITE THE WEAK BUOYANCY, THE TBW 00Z SOUNDING AND VWP ARE
SAMPLING STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- AIDED BY A 40-50-KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND 60-70-KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (AROUND 350 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH) MAY
FAVOR TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
AS THEY CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
WATCH.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 02/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171
27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279
28928165 28938133
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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