006
ACUS48 KWNS 161002
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE,
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD, MAY UNDERGO A PERIOD OF FURTHER DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLE,
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT
CONCERNING A CORRIDOR OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THIS MAY INCLUDE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING AS
HIGH AS THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F BY AROUND 20/00Z, WHICH MAY
ADVECT AT LEAST A BIT FURTHER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE BEING CUT OFF LATER THURSDAY EVENING. THOUGH
STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST, AND PERHAPS ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG, THIS PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES, AND PERHAPS AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIVELY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, OR PERHAPS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. SO, WHILE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC, THE EXTENT TO WHICH MID/UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR.
BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY, CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
..KERR.. 02/16/2026
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