998
ACUS03 KWNS 161931
SWODY3
SPC AC 161930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY, AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL CA COAST. FARTHER EAST, A
NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, AS MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMA
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
..MI INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
GENERALLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY SPREAD FROM LOWER MI INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SOME GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS) DEPICTS MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION, WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS OCCURS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE DRYING ENVIRONMENT (WITH PW
FALLING NEAR/BELOW 0.5 INCHES), WITH GENERALLY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT. THE SIGNAL FOR ROBUST DEEPER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY VERY
LIMITED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
..NORTHERN MID-SOUTH REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH, A SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF THIS CYCLONE
PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MUCAPE MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
PERIOD FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO INTO MUCH OF KY/TN AND
ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WOULD CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR AN ORGANIZED-SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
..DEAN.. 02/16/2026
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