536
FNUS21 KWNS 170745
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY, RESULTING IN THE RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS STATES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
ISALLOBARIC AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PROMOTE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CONDITIONS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT, DANGEROUS WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, COINCIDING WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
SUBSEQUENT RH REDUCTIONS, DOWN TO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE IN SPOTS,
WARRANTING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS. EXTREMELY CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE LONGEST TERM OVERLAP OF 30+ MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS
AND AT LEAST 15 PERCENT OR LOWER RH ATOP FUELS WITH ERCS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID AND DANGEROUS WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD
BECOME COMMON BY AFTERNOON AS A NEAR 120 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CONCERN REMAINS FOR MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOMPANY THE JET STREAK, WHICH MAY DAMPEN RH
REDUCTIONS (I.E. 25-30 PERCENT), PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE AMARILLO,
TX LONGITUDE. EVEN WITH A MORE MOIST SCENARIO, THE STRONG WINDS ATOP
VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT CRITICAL WILDFIRE-SPREAD
CONDITIONS. EAST OF AMARILLO, RH SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST 15-20
PERCENT, SUGGESTING THAT HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT, RAPID WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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