491
ACUS48 KWNS 170952
SWOD48
SPC AC 170950
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION
IN GENERAL, THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN
INITIALLY NOTABLE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIVE WEAKENING, AS A
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE BECOMES SHEARED AND WEAKENS TO THE
SOUTH OF A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. IT APPEARS THAT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SUBDUED,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH GULF COAST VICINITY INTO SATURDAY, NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS, EMERGING FROM LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROGRESSING OUT OF THE WEST, MAY REMAIN LARGELY TO THE COOL SIDE OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, FURTHER MOISTENING ALONG IT
COULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS, PERHAPS
UPSCALE GROWING AND TRAINING, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD
POSE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT LESS THAN
15 PERCENT IN THIS OUTLOOK, IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
CHANGE IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.
THEREAFTER, AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
APPEARS LIKELY TO INCLUDE BUILDING LARGE-SCALE RIDGING INLAND OF THE
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BENEATH THE CONFLUENT
REGIME IN THE WAKE OF DIGGING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING, COLD SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
STABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 02/17/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page