351
FNUS21 KWNS 171701
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH LEE OF THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DRY, DOWNSLOPE REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY ALIGNMENT OF 30+ MPH
WESTERLY WINDS, RAPIDLY FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10
PERCENT AND RECEPTIVE FUELS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO,
SOUTHWESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN CO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NE AND
KS AMID WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH COINCIDING WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 15-25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLEARING TREND OF DENSER CIRRUS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING UNDER A PRONOUNCED 100-110 KT JET MAX AND CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALREADY APPROACHING 10 PERCENT.
SEVERAL HOURS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15 PERCENT AND ABUNDANT DRY FUELS COULD
SUPPORT VERY RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITIONS OCCUR. THEREFORE,
EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE WARRANTED GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVED
AND SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE MAINTAINED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST TX, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.
..WILLIAMS.. 02/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0145 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY, RESULTING IN THE RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS STATES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
ISALLOBARIC AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PROMOTE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CONDITIONS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT, DANGEROUS WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, COINCIDING WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
SUBSEQUENT RH REDUCTIONS, DOWN TO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE IN SPOTS,
WARRANTING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS. EXTREMELY CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE LONGEST TERM OVERLAP OF 30+ MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS
AND AT LEAST 15 PERCENT OR LOWER RH ATOP FUELS WITH ERCS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID AND DANGEROUS WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD
BECOME COMMON BY AFTERNOON AS A NEAR 120 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CONCERN REMAINS FOR MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOMPANY THE JET STREAK, WHICH MAY DAMPEN RH
REDUCTIONS (I.E. 25-30 PERCENT), PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE AMARILLO,
TX LONGITUDE. EVEN WITH A MORE MOIST SCENARIO, THE STRONG WINDS ATOP
VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT CRITICAL WILDFIRE-SPREAD
CONDITIONS. EAST OF AMARILLO, RH SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST 15-20
PERCENT, SUGGESTING THAT HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT, RAPID WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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