209
ACUS11 KWNS 172323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172322
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172322Z - 180015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, EMBEDDED IN BROADER UPPER
TROUGHING, IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN THE
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NE. PRECEDING
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE, AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS/SHORT-TERM FORECASTS DEPICT
OVER 50 KTS OF 925 MB FLOW POISED TO OVERSPREAD FAR EASTERN NE INTO
CENTRAL IA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. A SHIELD OF
HIGH-BASED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND
WILL OVERSPREAD A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
OF THE STRONGER VIRGA SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROMOTE
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, LIKELY RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT DAMAGING TO
PERHAPS SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE THOUGH, SO A WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 02/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40429763 42049793 42389785 42709753 43099690 43329625
43389556 43339484 43119422 42729377 42229345 41719345
41179368 40669420 40359473 40169524 40089589 40069629
40089666 40169720 40429763
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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