331
FNUS21 KWNS 180717
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA
FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
..SYNOPSIS
TWO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, EMBEDDED IN A BROADER LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN, WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. ONE
TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AS A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALONG THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED
BY AN 80-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK. AS A RESULT, GRADIENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AS WELL AS DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WILL
ENCOURAGE APPRECIABLE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESPECTIVELY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW PEAKS IN INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WIDESPREAD 25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, WILL OVERLAP WITH 10-15 PERCENT RH (PERHAPS LOWER IN SOME
LOCALES). THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS, HIGH-END CRITICAL
CONDITIONS, SUPPORTING DANGEROUS/RAPID WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL,
ARE EXPECTED. WHILE EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD LIKE THE YESTERDAY, SPOTTY EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, 15-20 PERCENT RH WILL OVERLAP
WITH 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WARRANTING BROAD
ELEVATED/CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING WILL SUPPORT A BELT OF OVERLAPPING 25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 15-25 PERCENT RH FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. SUCH CONDITIONS ARE HIGH-END CRITICAL
FOR THE MIDWEST, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT YESTERDAY'S
PRECIPITATION HAS NOT YIELDED MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH HAVE
ALSO BEEN LACKING IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. RAPID, DANGEROUS WILDFIRE
SPREAD IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER DRY FUEL BEDS EXIST, AND A SPARSE
INSTANCE OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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