076
FNUS21 KWNS 181636
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA
FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CO, INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST NM. AN 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE, ALONG WITH DEEPENING
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL YIELD HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND SOUTHEASTERN NM. SPORADIC EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING 30+ MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NM, ALTHOUGH OVERALL FUELSCAPE REMAINS ONLY MODERATELY RECEPTIVE
WITH ERC PERCENTILES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. LESS VOLATILE BUT STILL
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTEND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TX, OK
AND KS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
15-20 PERCENT ALIGN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
BREEZY WEST WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST TODAY. WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WILL ALIGN FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN NE TO
MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHWESTERN IL. DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH THESE
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WILDFIRE SPREAD OVER
A REGION WHERE CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
..WILLIAMS.. 02/18/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0116 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
TWO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, EMBEDDED IN A BROADER LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN, WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. ONE
TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AS A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALONG THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED
BY AN 80-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK. AS A RESULT, GRADIENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AS WELL AS DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WILL
ENCOURAGE APPRECIABLE WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESPECTIVELY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW PEAKS IN INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WIDESPREAD 25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, WILL OVERLAP WITH 10-15 PERCENT RH (PERHAPS LOWER IN SOME
LOCALES). THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS, HIGH-END CRITICAL
CONDITIONS, SUPPORTING DANGEROUS/RAPID WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL,
ARE EXPECTED. WHILE EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD LIKE THE YESTERDAY, SPOTTY EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, 15-20 PERCENT RH WILL OVERLAP
WITH 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WARRANTING BROAD
ELEVATED/CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING WILL SUPPORT A BELT OF OVERLAPPING 25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 15-25 PERCENT RH FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. SUCH CONDITIONS ARE HIGH-END CRITICAL
FOR THE MIDWEST, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT YESTERDAY'S
PRECIPITATION HAS NOT YIELDED MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH HAVE
ALSO BEEN LACKING IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. RAPID, DANGEROUS WILDFIRE
SPREAD IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER DRY FUEL BEDS EXIST, AND A SPARSE
INSTANCE OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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