759
ACUS03 KWNS 190831
SWODY3
SPC AC 190830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A NUMBER OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND ITS CENTER, GENERALLY SETTLING NEAR
44N/140W. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF THESE MAY ALREADY BE PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, INCLUDING ONE CYCLONE WHICH MAY
OCCLUDE WHILE MIGRATING AROUND ITS NORTHEASTERN THROUGH NORTHERN
PERIPHERY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A TRAILING
CYCLONE MAY UNDERGO SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING BEFORE OCCLUDING,
WHILE MIGRATING AROUND THE EASTERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM, AS AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEEDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES, DIGGING SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS TO ITS EAST ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF A FRONTAL WAVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY,
WHILE COLD SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST
THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS NEAR NORTHERN PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
BAND APPROACHES OR PROGRESSES A BIT INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE SUPPORTIVE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION, VIGOROUS ORGANIZING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR OR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE INITIALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. AS THIS FORCING DEVELOPS EASTWARD, AND DAYTIME
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG AND SHEARED WESTERLY MEAN FLOW, INCLUDING 30-60+
KT IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE
GUSTS WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES COULD BE INCREASED FURTHER IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES
FOR THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 02/19/2026
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