103
ACUS48 KWNS 190950
SWOD48
SPC AC 190948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION
DOWNSTREAM OF INITIALLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO
EXPAND EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MODELS
INDICATE THAT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER, INTO AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS IT DOES, MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO ENSUE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, TOWARD THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, WHILE COLD SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
AROUND THE SAME TIME, AND THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
BLOCKED REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC
WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED. IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIALLY BROAD
OFFSHORE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE COMPACT,
AND REMAIN OFFSHORE, WHILE FLOW INLAND OF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TRENDS LESS AMPLIFIED AND GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
BENEATH THIS REGIME, SURFACE TROUGHING MAY INITIALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS, BEFORE A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION DIGGING FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES, ADVANCES SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN BY THAT TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT GULF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING AND INLAND RETURN FLOW
WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
..KERR.. 02/19/2026
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