522
ACUS11 KWNS 191644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191644
ILZ000-MOZ000-191815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191644Z - 191815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING LATE THIS
MORNING AS STORMS APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR THE ST. LOUIS
METRO VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MO. MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS SHOW STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AIDED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT, INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMPROVING
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL. GIVEN FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL THROUGH MIDDAY, AND ISOLATED SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE MCD AREA, AND A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS INITIAL CONVECTION. SUBSEQUENT MCDS WILL
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
IL/IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 02/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38779124 39189127 39439103 39589055 39529018 39388979
39158946 38828932 38468935 38138946 37968986 38039046
38289102 38489110 38779124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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