817
ACUS11 KWNS 191735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191734
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191734Z - 191930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALONG
WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH. ACROSS THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
SOUTHWARD, AND INTO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-500 MB RANGE ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MLCAPE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST, VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES ARE
PRESENT AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ABOVE
2-3 KM SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
FURTHERMORE, ENLARGED, FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1
KM SRH INCREASING TO 150-200 M2/S2 IS FORECAST AMID STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES
DESPITE THE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
COULD BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL INTO SOUTHERN IN. A TORNADO WATCH IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 02/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39798990 40288827 40038629 39568509 38938474 38348464
37948471 37618553 37438668 37298818 37278885 37558953
38509000 39149016 39609005 39798990
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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