108
ACUS11 KWNS 192056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192056
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN
INDIANA...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
VALID 192056Z - 192300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORM INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. MODEST BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ACROSS WW0010,
WITH SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH
SEVERAL DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAVE
BEEN NOTED THUS FAR, GRADUAL STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH
SOME CELLS AS SURFACE HEATING/MOISTENING COUPLED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS YIELDED A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG) OVERLAPPED BY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
(EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KTS). FARTHER WEST, LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.
AS STORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILES (0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150+ M2/S2 PER REGIONAL VWP)
SUPPORTING A RISK FOR TORNADOES. WHILE THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION WITH
TIME LATER THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL INCREASES TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING SRH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING TORNADO
THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 02/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38388901 38748914 39158914 39428881 39488813 39438725
39228630 39058575 38948538 38798494 38418408 37918370
37448389 37178469 37248566 37408700 37508788 37688830
38008869 38388901
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page