304
ACUS11 KWNS 192106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192106
ILZ000-MOZ000-192230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192106Z - 192230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP,
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO COULD OCCUR. MONITORING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...AGITATED CUMULUS HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO TOWARD THE MS RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURGING SURFACE DRYLINE WITHIN
THE MODESTLY MOIST WARM SECTOR. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION, AND LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKEWISE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LACKLUSTER GIVEN SHALLOW/MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F.
HOWEVER, IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. AS THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST MO CONTINUES EASTWARD, LOW-LEVEL SRH ALSO WILL
INCREASE. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND MATURE, AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
RISK COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, IT IS
UNCLEAR OF A SMALL SEVERE OR TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION MOVES EAST INTO WW 0010.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 02/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38609045 39148937 39148883 38608862 38308877 37908949
37809004 37939047 38259064 38439066 38609045
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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